Asian Age, November 6, 2013
by Bharat Bhushan
“Today’s India is not falling apart — it does not need a Sardar Patel to keep it together by force. It needs a conciliator who is accommodative, inclusive and willing to share power with the periphery.”
There can be little doubt that the timing of the 14-party anti-communalism convention in the capital last week had much to do with the rising crescendo of Narendra Modi’s divisive campaign. However, it is equally true that the Indian polity is entering a phase similar to the one in 1994-95 when voters neither wanted to repose their faith in the Congress nor in the Bharatiya Janata Party.
The convention of the anti-Congress, anti-BJP parties can, therefore, be seen as an attempt by the regional parties to test the waters and establish fraternal links with potential allies for the post-general election scenario. Some of them could certainly come together in a post-poll configuration of political forces.
Both the Congress and the BJP stand discredited with a substantial section of the voters today. This two-fold disenchantment opens up the political space for the non-Congress, non-BJP parties. For the Congress to make a bid to lead a coalition, it would need upwards of 145 seats. The ask would be much higher for the BJP under Mr Modi —200 or more seats. These targets do not seem achievable as of now for either national party.
It is, perhaps, this prospect of post-poll uncertainty which led even the Nationalist Congress Party to join the anti-communalism convention despite being a part of the ruling United Progressive Alliance and its commitment to go into the polls as a Congress ally. It also explains why the Asom Gana Parishad, which is likely to go to the polls in alliance with the BJP, also chose to attend the convention.
The All-India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagham and Bjiu Janata Dal also appeared on the platform which was essentially anti-BJP because they feel the need to keep their options open. There are no political gains for the AIADMK and the BJD in going with Mr Modi. He brings nothing to the table in either the twin states of Tamil Nadu and Puducherry or in Orissa.
The absence of the Rashtriya Janata Dal, the Trinamul Congress and the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagham is easily explained. Electorally, they were at loggerheads with some of the key invitees — the RJD with the Janata Dal (United), the Trinamul Congress with the Left parties, and the DMK with the AIADMK. Those who might stay out of the future alliance may also include N. Chandrababu Naidu’s Telugu Desam Party, which is already making overtures to Mr Modi. If the Telangana state is created before the elections, he may have little compulsion to woo the minority vote which is not significant in Seemandhra.
However, regional parties with a Muslim support-base would instinctively want to distance themselves from Mr Modi’s aggressive Hindutva. His “strong” leadership platform is an even more important reason why the regional parties would be chary of aligning with Mr Modi.
Regional parties in India have increasingly shown a preference for a weak central leadership in Delhi with whom they can negotiate concessions for their states. It increases their bargaining power and has helped redefine Indian federalism. It has given them a larger say in national affairs, including in foreign policy, than their single state presence might normally allow.
The track record of the three women-led parties — Bahujan Samaj Party (Mayawati), the Trinamul Congress (Mamata Banerjee) and the AIADMK (J. Jayalalithaa) — shows that a high-handed central leadership has always found it difficult to forge a cooperative working relationship with them. In the post-2014 scenario, the three of them together might control about 70 to 90 MPs. It is doubtful whether they would want to see a “strong” Mr Modi calling the shots from Delhi.
Mr Modi’s projection of himself as a strong and self-righteous leader who is the natural successor to Sardar Vallabhbhai Patel might make him attractive to the middle classes yearning for fascist discipline and order. These very qualities, however, make him unattractive to the regional political forces as they see them inimical to their rise. Today’s India is not falling apart — it does not need a Sardar Patel to keep it together by force. It needs a conciliator who is accommodative, inclusive and willing to share power with the periphery. So even if the BJP under Mr Modi reaches the unlikely number of 200 or more MPs, the regional parties would hesitate to install him as the powerful head of the “Delhi sultanate”, as he prefers to call it — the very reason for their existence is to change that balance of power in favour of the states.
What might be the relationship between these parties and the Congress if the latter’s tally is in the vicinity of a 100 seats? If the Left continues to be the moving force behind the new front — and it is likely to have the largest number of Lok Sabha seats by virtue of being a multi-state party in a gathering of essentially single-state parties — there could be a real possibility of a rapprochement with the Congress. Their bête noir, Manmohan Singh, would be out in any case once the Congress tally is reduced and the party would become much less arrogant.
The Congress might also take the wise course of supporting a secular front of regional parties from inside or outside and save face despite its poor performance. It can then claim to have upheld secular values and ensured stability at the Centre.
In 1996, the Left did not want to head a government in which they would not have a dominant say in policy-making. Because in 2014 the Left parties may have the largest number of seats among the coalition partners, they might be amenable to joining the government in order to influence its agenda.
Many wonder about who might lead such a government and whether the alliance would be able to choose a leader acceptable to all the partners. That should not prove unduly difficult if the North Indian leaders — who have competing and overlapping electoral bases — are persuaded to keep their ambitions at bay and agree on someone from outside their region.
The writer is a journalist based in New Delhi
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