by Praful Bidwai
(The Daily Star, June 22, 2009)
THE Bharatiya Janata Party's second consecutive defeat in the national elections has led to vicious infighting. The BJP's pettiest and meanest traits are on full display in this sordid power-play. Former finance minister Yashwant Sinha has joined former foreign minister Jaswant Singh in raising the banner of revolt by attacking the L.K. Advani camp for its election strategy failure and for "rewarding" those who devised it.
Some other leaders blame the BJP's recourse to Hindutva for its defeat. The RSS has joined the fray for the first time with its ideologue M.G. Vaidya dismissing the suggestion.
Shaken, party president Rajnath Singh has banned leaders from commenting on the defeat until the issue is internally discussed. But Mr. Singh lacks the authority to enforce the ban. He played partisan in belatedly announcing Mr. Arun Jaitley's resignation as general secretary. And party leaders' bitterness is too great for a lid to be put on the issue.
The BJP's campaign heavily projected Mr. Advani as prime minister, believing his "resolute" image would appeal to the electorate. The campaign fell flat. But the Advani camp pretends it didn't.
Yet, Mr. Advani's critics are driven by ambition and ego. Mr. Jaswant Singh is loath to forgo his privileges as the leader of the opposition (LoP) in the Rajya Sabha. He attacked Advani groupie Jaitley's elevation to that post as a reward for poor performance.
Similarly, Mr. Sinha accuses the party of putting "a premium on failure." In his leaked letter to Mr. Rajnath Singh, he mocks Mr. Jaitley and Advani aide Sudheendra Kulkarni: "Those who were responsible for the … campaign have already … apportioned blame and given themselves a clean chit."
Mr. Sinha also says the leadership disregarded the party constitution in appointing Ms. Sushma Swaraj as the deputy LoP in the Lok Sabha, a post he himself wanted. Mr. Sinha is senior to Ms. Swaraj and rooted in one constituency (Hazaribagh). She has flitted from Haryana to Delhi to Madhya Pradesh.
But Mr. Sinha is no exemplar of consistency. When he lost from Hazaribagh in 2004, he had no compunction in getting a Rajya Sabha nomination. His trajectory runs from the Socialists to the BJP, which he had long called communal.
Mr. Sinha belongs to the BJP's "left-out" or "lost" generation, consisting of leaders in the 60-to-80 age group. This lot resents its exclusion from all major party posts and most of the BJP's privileged constitutional-parliamentary positions, which have been monopolised by Advani loyalists.
This generation, including Mr. Murli Manohar Joshi and Mr. Arun Shourie, resents younger leaders' anointment as Mr. Vajpayee-Advani's successors.
This is the beginning of the BJP's "debate" over its debacle. There will be raucous exchanges between the two camps which divide the BJP's national leadership: one led by Mr. Advani, including loyalists Jaitley, Swaraj, Venkaiah Naidu, Anantha Kumar and Vasundhara Raje, and the other led by Mr. Rajnath Singh, supported by Messrs Jaswant Singh, Sinha, Gopinath Munde, Ravi Shankar Prasad, Rajiv Pratap Rudy and Vijay Goel.
Most men from the second camp, barring Maharashtra BJP president Munde, have no base. Mr. Jaswant Singh, for instance, couldn't have got elected from Rajasthan given Ms. Raje's opposition. But then, neither could many in Mr. Advani's camp.
Ms. Swaraj won by fluke: her opponent didn't file his nomination papers in time. Mr. Naidu can't get elected from his native Andhra. And Mr. Jaitley has never contested an election.
Mr. Narendra Modi, other BJP chief ministers and the super-ambitious Mr. M.M. Joshi are waiting and watching. They'll try to recruit support from different sangh parivar elements, including the RSS.
The RSS is keen to wrest control of the BJP from Mr. Advani, after his strident loyalist Jaitley attributed the BJP's defeat to its "shrill" opposition to the United Progressive Alliance, and called for "moderation."
Kulkarni and journalist-ideologue Swapan Dasgupta have riled the RSS the most. Neither has a party base, but both are considered Mr. Advani's agents. He probably used them to float a trial balloon.
Kulkarni blames the BJP's anti-Muslim bigotry for its defeat and demands it sever its links with the RSS. Dasgupta too wants the BJP to adopt a Right-wing economic, social and political agenda, without the tag of religious fundamentalism, much like Margaret Thatcher's Conservatives -- although his opposition to Hindutva is purely tactical.
Mr. Advani's critics are as communal as him. Mr. Sinha stridently defended Mr. Narendra Modi. Mr. Jaswant Singh is no less hawkish than Mr. Advani -- although he doesn't like the RSS, and vice versa.
The BJP's infighting isn't over ideology or Hindutva, but over the top organisational positions.
The BJP is in historic decline and unlikely to rebound quickly. The unique circumstances of its ascent from the mid-1980s to the late 1990s have passed, including the Ayodhya mobilisation, the anti-Mandal platform against affirmative action, the Congress's decline, and the rise of militant, illiberal, ethno-religious nationalism within the middle class.
These catapulted the BJP into power and created an illusion of success for its "social engineering" approach of combining elite support with OBC votes. The party was buoyed by forces and conditions it didn't even comprehend, and which may never return. The BJP's ideological confusion, political mobilisation crisis, and organisational crisis will now worsen.
It cannot cut the umbilical chord with the RSS. It couldn't sever it during the Janata period (1977-79), when it chose to split over the "dual membership" issue. It didn't break with the sangh after the Babri demolition or the Gujarat pogrom. It's unlikely to do that now. Those who want the BJP to break from the RSS are asking for the moon.
When under pressure, the BJP is likely to return to Hindutva. That means marginalisation, going back into the ghetto, losing yet more elections and being reduced to a niche party with a limited base, like the former Jana Sangh with 20 to 35 Lok Sabha seats.
Whatever happens, the BJP's internal bloodletting will continue relentlessly.
Praful Bidwai is an eminent Indian columnist.
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