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May 26, 2008

On BJP's May 2008 victory in Karnataka elections

The Hindu
May 26, 2008

Editorial

The BJP’s hour of triumph

Even if not overwhelming or decisive, it was a comfortable victory in Karnataka for the Bhartiya Janata Party that left its rivals far behind. The party would surely take comfort from being free of the crutches of the Janata Dal (Secular). In some ways, the 2008 Assembly election was not very different from 2004 when the BJP finished first but substantially short of a majority, the Congress second, and the JD(S) third. But this time, the BJP gained immensely at the cost of the JD(S), falling just three short of the magic figure of 113 in the 224-member Assembly. Evidently, the last thing the people of Karnataka wanted was another period of political uncertainty. The JD(S), which broke a power-sharing agreement with the BJP last October and forced an early election, was the only real loser. Both the BJP, which focussed its campaign on the “betrayal” by the JD(S), and the Congress, which fought hard to overcome factionalism in its ranks, recorded gains compared to 2004. However, the JD(S) was by no means decimated, and the party has retained a part of its core support base in the old Mysore region and picked up a few seats elsewhere too, notwithstanding the desertion by several second line leaders. Thus, Karnataka is still nowhere close to moving towards a situation of polarisation between the two national parties.

With the BJP falling tantalisingly short of a majority, the Congress and the JD(S) might be tempted to come together and make a desperate bid for power. However, Governor Rameshwar Thakur, a former Congress Union Minister, cannot let old loyalties blur his judgment, and should invite the BJP to form the government, unless of course the Congress and the JD(S) are able to quickly secure letters of support from at least 113 members, which would include five of the six independents. In the ordinary course, if the Governor denies the BJP the first shot at forming the government, he will be exposing himself to charges of political partisanship. As the BJP is only three seats short, a post-poll alliance of the Congress and the JD(S) will popularly be seen as opportunistic. Politically, the proper course for the two parties will be to bide their time, sitting in the opposition. The BJP, on its part, should be humble in victory. Although the party did play the Hindutva card during several stages of its growth in Karnataka, it owes the present success mostly to its positioning as a viable political alternative to the Congress. Filling the role of an opposition is far easier than holding the reins of governance. Words are enough to keep an opposition party thriving, but a ruling party will be judged by its actions. The BJP, in power on its own strength for the first time in a southern State, will need to learn its lessons quickly.