Division
and disarray: BJP's strategy to hobble the Opposition
Bharat Bhushan
There
can be little doubt that the failure of Opposition unity in the coming
assembly elections does not portend well for chances of a united front
against the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in the 2019 general election.
The
Centre’s machinations may well have contributed to a fragmented
Opposition in the three election-going states. However, it is important
to ask: Can the Central Bureau of Investigation (CBI) and the Enforcement Directorate (ED)
help any government win elections? If they could determine poll results
then no party in power would ever lose. So it is still premature to
conclude that Mayawati’s decision to fight alone in the coming state
assembly elections will set the tone for Opposition unity in 2019.
Mayawati’s importance may be limited to Uttar Pradesh alone. There the alliance between the Samajwadi Party and the BSP will determine the election outcome in 2019 rather than the Congress.The disenchantment of the Dalits, tribals and the Other Backward Classes (OBCs) with the BJP is a pan-Indian phenomenon and angry Dalits have other options outside UP.
In
the recent student body elections in colleges in Rajasthan, for
example, nearly three-fourths have elected Dalit candidates; there is a
mushrooming of Ambedkarite youth organisations and the emergence of a
decentralised Dalit leadership. This development is as much of a
potential threat to Mayawati as to the upper caste dominated parties,
especially the BJP.Therefore, weakening Mayawati’s morale or limiting her degrees of freedom may not directly help the BJP to win the Dalit vote in the country.
As of now, it is not clear how much the Congress has been damaged by Mayawati opting to go alone in the state assembly elections. In fact, the BSP could
suffer in the seat-sharing arrangements for the general election in
these states if it does not post good results now. Moreover, Mayawati’s
conciliatory statements about Congress president Rahul Gandhi and his mother Sonia Gandhi seem to have left the window open for future negotiations for Opposition unity.
The
BJP will do its best to close that window. It would like a
multi-cornered contest. A divided Opposition will be crucial for it in
three states – UP, Bihar and Maharashtra. They account for 167 Lok Sabha
seats, of which the BJP had secured 143 in 2014.
The
latest “ABP News-C-Voter” poll shows that if the Samajwadi Party, BSP,
Congress and the Rashtriya Lok Dal come together in UP, the BJP may be
reduced to just 24 seats out of 80. If the BSP and
SP contest together but without the Congress, the BJP is expected to
get 36 seats. If, however, the BSP contests alone, then the BJP can
virtually repeat its performance of 2014 and get 70 seats. Therefore, it
will be the BJP’s first priority to ensure that the BSP contests
separately in UP.
Should
a grand-alliance of the Opposition nevertheless come through in UP, the
BJP is exploring other fall-back options. There is speculation that the
party is encouraging Shivpal Yadav’s Samajwadi Secular Morcha to put up
candidates in all constituencies in the state. His nascent party is
also trying to ally with other smaller parties, including Raghuraj
Pratap Singh aka Raja Bhaiyya’s new party, expected to be launched in
November.
In Bihar, there is speculation that the BJP may part ways with Nitish Kumar’s Janata Dal (United)
by December as some in the party believe that it will not be able to
bring much in the Lok Sabha elections. However with the next generation
leadership of Lalu Yadav’s Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD)
opposed to Kumar joining the Opposition’s grand-alliance, the JD(U) may
have to contest alone. This will be to the BJP’s advantage.
Smaller parties such as Sharad Yadav’s Loktantrik Janata Dal, Upendra Kushwaha’s Rashtriya Lok Samta Party and
the Left parties are yet to decide whether they will join the RJD-led
grand-alliance. There are other outliers in Bihar too; like Pappu Yadav
and Sadhu Yadav, who could be used to mine the Opposition’s support base
wherever they can.
In
Maharashtra, prospects of a three-cornered contest have increased in
some constituencies with the alliance of Asaduddin Owaisi’s All India
Majlis-e-Ittahadul Musalmeen (AIMIM) and Prakash Ambedkar’s Bharip
Bahujan Mahasangh (BBM). This is not insignificant. The AIMIM has
influence in Marathwada, Bhiwandi, Malegaon and some parts of Mumbai,
while the BBM enjoys support in Vidarbha, Marathwada and Mumbai. In
2015, in the Aurangabad municipal elections, the AIMIM won 25
corporation seats, second only to the Shiv Sena. A year earlier in the
state assembly elections, the party had won two seats and was placed
second in three. An alliance with the BBM may give it a leg up in the
Lok Sabha elections.
The
BJP expects to make good any losses in UP, Bihar and Maharashtra, with
gains in West Bengal, Orissa and the Northeast. In West Bengal, although
the chances of a Congress-Trinamul Congress alliance are brighter with
the removal of Adhir Choudhury as Congress president and the appointment
of Somen Mitra, it would leave the Left parties to contest alone –
resulting in a three-cornered contest. In Odisha, Jay Panda and Damodar
Raut may oblige the BJP by forming a party to ensure a four-cornered
contest in the state.
Multi-cornered
contests would also be pursued in other states like Jharkhand, Andhra
Pradesh and Telangana. In the Northeast, the BJP is forcing regional
parties to decide on partnering with it for 2019 before this December,
i.e. before the results of state election in North India are out.
Meanwhile, the RSS, the Vishwa Hindu Parishad and its front organisations of Sadhus are timing their Ram Mandir agitation
to culminate in large-scale protests four months from now, to coincide
with the Kumbh Mela and announcement of the general election. With the
outgoing Chief Justice of India, clearing the way for a regular hearing
on the land title of the disputed site, a judgment on the issue could
come by that time. In the ensuing communal climate, the BJP’s chances of
stealing a multi-cornered match might just increase.
