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March 14, 2017

India 2017 Assembly elections: It is a hegemonic moment for BJP …

The Times of India

It is a hegemonic moment for BJP … non-BJP politics needs a fundamental reorientation: Yogendra Yadav

March 13, 2017
 
After BJP’s historic sweep in Uttar Pradesh and electoral inroads into Manipur, eminent psephologist and president of Swaraj India Yogendra Yadav spoke to Nalin Mehta about the national impact of BJP’s electoral triumph and the challenge for opposition parties:
How do you understand the unprecedented mandate for BJP in Uttar Pradesh?

This is a hegemonic moment for BJP. Hegemony is not just about crude and simple power: it means power with legitimacy. The NDA government has enjoyed and exercised brute state power, more than usual central governments do. With this electoral victory, the BJP has managed to extend its electoral dominance to most parts of the country. This verdict also signals something else: the PM enjoys popular legitimacy that extends well beyond the usual ‘honeymoon’ period.
What are its national political implications, going forward to 2019?

Let us not underestimate what this mandate has done. This is not just about UP and Uttarakhand. Let us not forget that BJP has done better than it should have done in the remaining three states. In UP and Uttarakhand there was no strong anti-incumbency sentiment to assist the BJP. And as in Haryana and Maharashtra, it did not have local leaders to project. This is something only Indira Gandhi could have done: a national leader winning a state election without a local face. Such a big shift cannot be explained merely by factors like smart election management or social engineering or tactical mistakes by opponents. The fact is that Modi has captured the national political imagination and has become the pole around which national politics is conducted.
There are two serious caveats to Modi’s widespread legitimacy. One, it is not spontaneous. A lot of media management has gone into manufacturing this consent. Two, it is not truly cross-sectional: it firmly excludes minorities, especially Muslims. By not giving a single ticket to a Muslim candidate in UP, BJP sent a loud signal to delimit its electoral universe.
But BJP does have Muslim ministers and gave tickets to Christians in Goa and Manipur.
BJP has always had some token Muslim faces going all the way back to the late Sikandar Bakht. The crucial point is that Modi’s BJP does not even want to win Muslim votes. It wants everyone to notice that it couldn’t care less. This attitude doesn’t extend to Sikhs, because RSS has never regarded Sikhs and Jains as minorities distinct from Hindus.
Why is the opposition failing to provide a credible counter-narrative?

This verdict has again exposed the political bankruptcy of non-BJP parties. ‘Social justice’, espoused by SP and BSP, is shown to be nothing but casteism. ‘Secularism’ is shown to be either pandering to Muslims or keeping them hostage. ‘Socialism’ has failed to meet the needs and touch the aspirations of the poor. The opposition is playing a simple-minded anti-Modi politics, which does not click with voters. Modi is positive, proactive and aggressive. The opposition is defensive, reactive and negative.
Is the political clock running out on Rahul Gandhi?

Congress’s problem is that it is an organisation where political lightweights float and heavyweights sink. Thus from top to bottom, the leadership needs an overhaul. Even more, Congress faces a crisis of vision. It needs a plot, a narrative.
So how does the opposition reboot itself to face the BJP hegemony?

This is the principal political challenge of our times. Not just because a democracy needs an opposition but because Modi’s hegemony may be used to dismantle the fundamentals of our republic.
A hegemonic power cannot be challenged by headlong confrontation. Non-BJP politics needs a fundamental reorientation. Secular politics needs to connect to our traditions, cultures and languages. Politics of social justice must move beyond caste-based reservations. Egalitarian politics must find intelligent economics. And we all must recover the legacy of Indian nationalism.
Has AAP’s failure in Punjab knocked out Arvind Kejriwal’s national challenge? How badly has it hurt AAP?

I feel truly sad about it. Not much was expected in Goa, but Punjab is a serious setback. While AAP’s leadership got the rude message they deserved, this defeat must have disheartened the volunteers who worked tirelessly in Punjab and Goa. The lesson is that you cannot take on the corrupt political establishment with help of leaders borrowed from Akalis and Congress, by selling your own tickets and by controlling everything from Delhi Durbar. Alternative politics has to be truly alternative.