#1.
The Daily Star
November 28, 2008
Zero Tolerance Time
by Zafar Sobhan
When will it ever end? Photo: AFP
What in God's name is going on in India? Pakistan and Sri Lanka have long been tinder-boxes, periodically erupting into welters of death and destruction, and recent years have added Nepal to the nations in the region beset by radical upheaval. Indeed, not long ago, it seemed as though even Bangladesh may have been heading in the direction of increasing violence and discord.
But, of late, it seems that India's tenure as the only long-standing and stable democracy in South Asia is coming to an end.
Of course, perhaps part of the problem is that we have simply not been paying sufficient attention as India has steadily descended into its present state of chaos and confusion over the past few years.
Perhaps we have not paid sufficient attention to the tensions in Kashmir, the north-east, and in vast swathes of the countryside along the country's central and eastern belt that are now under the de facto control of Maoist insurgents and their sympathisers.
Perhaps we have not paid sufficient attention to the implications of atrocities like the Gujarat carnage of 2002 and the recent pogroms against Christians in Orissa and surrounding areas.
Perhaps we have not paid sufficient attention to the steady increase of terrorist bombings over the past few years in locales as far ranging as Delhi, Hyderabad, Ahmedabad, Bangalore, and Guwahati. In fact, since 2005, more than 520 people have been killed, and hundreds more injured, in 12 major bombings around the country.
Well, everyone is paying attention now.
The sheer scale, co-ordination, precision, and audacity of the Mumbai attacks is something unprecedented.
At time of writing, there were over 100 dead and hundreds more wounded. The attacks appear to have encompassed at least seven distinct locales, planned and co-ordinated with seemingly military precision. There is no report on how many terrorists were involved overall, but it cannot be fewer than 50.
It is hard to write insightfully with the shadow of carnage behind one's shoulder. The truth is that words are wholly inadequate to discuss and dissect the enormity of the tragedy that has transpired in Mumbai. At a time like this it is hard to break free of the clichés and the obvious, to do more than to express shock for the barbarity of the crime committed and sympathy for those affected.
When the dust settles, half of the talk will be about how this attack should serve as a wake-up call and demonstrates the need for India to redouble its anti-terror efforts.
Already the opposition BJP is suggesting that the ruling Congress-led government is soft on terror. In an already tough electoral climate, this atrocity and the apparently massive intelligence failure that allowed it to happen could be a devastating blow to the sitting government (though whether state or national government should bear the brunt of the blame remains an open question).
Others will argue that an atrocity of this scale means that India really needs to look at the root causes of terror and take affirmative steps to address the grievances of the disaffected and the marginalised.
It remains unclear at the time of writing whether the terrorists are a home-grown Indian outfit or whether they come from outside the country. Already fingers are being pointed at Pakistan and Lashkar-e-Taiba (although responsibility has been claimed by a hitherto-unheard of outfit by the name of Deccan Mujahideen), but it is too soon to know with any certainty who is behind the attacks, where and by whom they have been trained, and what their motives are.
There is no happy answer to these questions. On the one hand, the negative repercussions in terms of regional stability if the attackers are found to have significant links outside India, are too great to even contemplate. On the other hand, if the attackers were home-grown in India, then this is hardly reason for anyone either inside the country or out to breathe a sigh of relief, and in fact raises a host of new and uncomfortable issues with respect to the radicalisation of Indian Muslims.
If there is a lesson to be learned for the region I think that it is this: we have a regional problem on our hands, and there is no way to address the threat of terrorism except on a regional basis.
It is unclear what, if any, links exist between terrorists in India, Pakistan, and Bangladesh (to say nothing of links between Maoist extremists across South Asia), but what is incontrovertible is that all three countries of the Indian sub-continent have active terrorist networks, and given the porosity of our borders and the ideological affinities of many of the groups, it would be unlikely if cross-border networks and support structures did not exist.
There is no question, for instance, that the terrorist groups in Bangladesh receive the bulk of their training, support, and financing from outside the country. There is thus no question that counter-terrorism efforts in Bangladesh need to be focused outside the country as well as inside.
We can take satisfaction in the fact that the last two years have seen a marked diminution of terrorist activity in Bangladesh, but we should not let ourselves get complacent. It seems to me that as long as terrorist activity remains high in the region then we continue to remain vulnerable.
The next lesson we need to put in place, both nationally as well as regionally, is that there must be zero tolerance for terrorism. I believe that the current mantra is "tough on terror; tough on the causes of terror." Now this may sound trite and sloganeering, but it does succeed in neatly encapsulating the dual approach that is our only hope of successfully countering terrorism. Indeed, the two approaches are inextricably linked.
Let us start with the root causes of terror. It is axiomatic that the fewer genuine grievances that the dispossessed and the marginalised have, the fewer terrorists will be engendered. This is not to in any manner justify, excuse, or rationalise the targeting of innocent civilians, which can never be condoned whatever the provocation, but merely to point out the obvious.
In addition, addressing issues of dispossession and marginalisation and genuine grievance also has immense operational benefit when it comes to counter-terrorism. The only successful method of actually countering a terrorist insurgency is through infiltration or building a network of informants. This, in turn, is only possible if there is good will towards the authorities on the part of the communities from which the terrorists spring and where they find shelter. I believe that this is known as "draining the swamp so there will be no mosquitoes."
Terror begets more terror. Pogroms against Muslims in Gujarat lead to the radicalisation of Indian Muslims and, indeed, Muslims all across the sub-continent. Targeting of Hindus in Bangladesh or Pakistan provides a tailor-made excuse for Hindu extremists in India to commit atrocities in return.
If moderates all across the region and from every community do not come together to address this issue then it is all over for us. The policy must be zero tolerance. But we need to join hands across national borders and across communities and understand that our enemy is not another country or another community, but those who would foment communal discord and perpetrate atrocities in order to sow hatred and to drive a permanent wedge between the different peoples of the region. They are the enemy, and they must be stopped.
Zafar Sobhan is Assistant Editor, The Daily Star.
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#2.
Washington Post
November 28, 2008; Page A29
Blood in Mumbai
by Dileep Padgaonkar
NEW DELHI -- Terrorist attacks have shattered the peace in more than half a dozen Indian cities over the past year. Yet none threatened India's secular and democratic polity as much as the carnage that jolted Mumbai on Wednesday. Mumbai is India's financial and commercial capital and arguably the country's most cosmopolitan metropolis. By targeting, among other establishments, two of the city's most opulent hotels -- the Taj and the Trident -- where the rich, famous and influential congregate to advance their business and political agendas, the terrorists struck at the very symbol of a resurgent nation.
The timing of the assault is equally significant, coming on the eve of elections to five provincial assemblies. Campaign rhetoric has polarized opinion along sharply antagonistic lines, essentially pitting the ruling Congress party, which swears by secularism, against the Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party.
After terrorist attacks in the past, the BJP has denounced the Congress party as being soft on terrorism in an effort to mobilize India's substantial Muslim vote in its favor. The Congress, in turn, attacks the BJP and its affiliates for bashing Muslims in order to consolidate its core Hindu vote. Indians have a peculiar word to describe this state of affairs -- communalism, meaning a determined bid to exploit religious sentiments for electoral gain.
The effect of this competitive demagoguery has been disastrous on many counts. Terrorism suspects have been picked up at random and denied legal rights. Allegations of torture by police are routine. Questions have been raised about the "encounters" between police and terrorism suspects. Suspects have been held for years as their court cases have dragged on. Convictions have been few and far between.
Commissions set up to investigate particularly gory incidents of religious violence have taken their time to produce reports. Few are opened for public debate. The recommendations in these reports have been routinely ignored or else implemented in a highly selective manner. Muslims convicted in some cases have been punished while Hindus have been let off lightly or not punished at all.
As a consequence, India's Muslims have begun to lose faith in the Indian state, its institutions and its instruments. This has led to the radicalization of Muslim youths. Religious extremism has pushed them onto the path of violence. Increasing evidence suggests that some have joined the ranks of the international jihadist movement with close links to terrorist groups in neighboring Pakistan and Bangladesh. Here in India, these groups are widely believed to collude with those countries' intelligence agencies.
To further complicate matters, a Hindu holy woman, a Hindu holy man, a serving officer of the Indian armed forces and some Hindu extremists have been arrested for their alleged involvement in terrorist attacks. It is now the turn of the BJP and its affiliates to charge that the police, at the behest of their "secular" masters, are failing to observe due process. Indeed, they charge that the Hindus have been framed to "appease" Muslims before the provincial assembly elections.
Simply put, the Hindus, like the Muslims, have started to question the credibility of the police and, by extension, the state. Wednesday's attacks in Mumbai can only compound fears in both communities that law enforcement cannot be trusted to bring the guilty to justice. And it is precisely such fears that set the stage for bloody confrontations between the two groups.
These fears cannot be calmed unless the Indian state cracks down vigorously on terrorism, regardless of the suspects' religion. That some Muslim youths are engaged in a war against infidels can no longer be denied. That the secular parties' approach to terrorism has been pusillanimous is also patent. But the refrain of the Hindu nationalists -- "all Muslims are not terrorists but all terrorists are Muslims" -- is no less wrong and dangerous.
The pan-Islamist character of the attacks in Mumbai must be stressed. At the Taj hotel, the terrorists asked for the numbers of the rooms occupied by foreign, especially American and British, guests. Another building they attacked housed Israeli guests. Overnight, Mumbai has been turned into a stage for "civilizations" to clash without hindrance.
Wednesday's brutal assault raises many questions: Who are these terrorists? Who are their mentors and their local accomplices? Where did they acquire their arms and their organizational skills? Why did the intelligence agencies fail to keep track of them?
The answers to those questions will be determined in the coming weeks, but some developments already offer comfort. At present, the attacks have not led to an outbreak of Hindu-Muslim violence in other parts of India. Politicians, who are often quick to react to such incidents, have been remarkably discreet. Muslims and Hindus have condemned the attacks without indulging in a blame game.
Even more remarkable, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and the leader of the opposition, L.K Advani of the BJP, have agreed to set aside their differences to visit Mumbai together to comfort those who lost relatives in the carnage. The victims include senior officers of the Mumbai police. This single gesture by Singh and Advani will go a long way toward reassuring a dazed and nervous India that the political establishment can still be trusted to rise above partisan passion.
The writer, a former editor of the Times of India, now edits the bimonthly magazine India & Global Affairs.
#3.
Irish Times - November 28, 2008
The attacks in Mumbai
INDIA'S PREMIER commercial and financial capital Mumbai was yesterday traumatised by the overnight attacks in which over 100 people were killed and 300 injured. Claimed by an unknown organisation, Indian leaders suspect the young men involved are associated with Islamist groups based in Pakistan, which have carried out similar acts elsewhere.
These atrocities therefore raise troubling questions about India's internal affairs ahead of general elections next year, in addition to relations with its largest neighbour at a time when Pakistan is anything but stable. Leaders of both countries and of India's major political parties must now do their best to calm inflamed attitudes.
Presumably these attacks are designed to have precisely such an inflammatory effect on Indian and international opinion. Targeting British, US, Indian Jews and Israeli visitors, major hotels, the city's main railway station and ordinary Indian civilians, this guerilla/"fedayeen" strategy relies on highly mobile young men armed lightly with automatic weapons and grenades. Their willingness to fight to the death and take hostages makes them a formidable enemy. Although there is a clear continuity from previous attacks in India and elsewhere, some of the tactics used are quite new and set frightening precedents.
If this is indeed an Islamic group the attacks will stoke up communal tensions between Muslims and Hindus in India and continuing tension in Kashmir. It is, however, important not to exaggerate these dangers or to underestimate the disgust felt by most Indians over such violence and their determination not to be provoked. Despite a series of attacks in Mumbai and other centres communal relations have not been fundamentally damaged. Nor has Mumbai's growing importance in the Indian economy been badly affected by previous incidents. On this occasion their coincidence with a sharp economic downturn could do more damage, but Mumbai's status as an economic hub and continental entreport should be basically unaffected.
Many see the hand of al-Qaeda in these events. The organisation responsible for the 9/11 attacks on New York and Washington in 2001 is now directed from the Pakistani borderlands with Afghanistan. The pattern of attacks in major urban centres is hereby maintained. So is the skilful political timing pitched at a period of transition in India, Pakistan and the US. Pakistan, in particular, faces a most difficult future under an incoming Obama administration determined to prosecute the war against al-Qaeda in Afghanistan into Pakistani territory. There could be major propaganda gains for al-Qaeda if the transition is not handled intelligently.
Firmly targeted security measures must be combined with political dialogue within India and between Indian and Pakistani leaders to offset the damaging effects of these attacks. Too much is at stake for their democracy and stability if they are tempted to inflame inter-communal and cross-border relations. Terrorist methods and objectives are best tackled in these ways.
This article appears in the print edition of the Irish Times
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