Does the Maharashtra admin have the will to shut down Raj Thackeray's outfit

Daily News and Analysis, October 21, 2008

After north Indians, who?

by Sidharth Bhatia


Raj Thackeray still doesn’t have the Shiv Sena’s clout; he might therefore raise the ante

So the police finally arrested Raj Thackeray. Was it because of the pressure on Vilasrao Deshmukh by the party high command or the ruckus in the Lok Sabha over the violence against north Indians by MNS workers or just a sudden burst of governance? Whatever it was, the government did it. The last time he was taken into police custody and let off after a few token minutes, nothing untoward happened in Mumbai. This time round, there was sporadic violence, shops and establishments (and schools) shut down and people stayed at home, mostly out of fear. However, many also ventured out to work and in some areas the shops remained open; it is what newspapers call, a “mixed response”. Thackeray and his followers want to show that their writ runs in Mumbai and they have the power to shut it down at whim.

This is important for Raj Thackeray; it would make him a formidable power in the political stakes in the city and the state. More important, it would put him on par with his uncle Bal Thackeray, whose Shiv Sena wields this kind of muscle. From then onwards, portraying himself successfully as the true heir of Thackeray senior is but a step.

Raj Thackeray has tried several different tactics towards that end. He tried product differentiation — when the Maharashtra Navnirman Sena was formed, he set out to attract a wide spectrum of followers, including Muslims and Dalits, two constituencies that have stayed away from the Shiv Sena. He got two stars for that from liberal commentators who felt that he was turning over a new leaf, but the strain proved too much in the end. Once it was clear that this wasn’t going to yield electoral advantage, Thackeray realised that he could not stray too far from the Sena line. Thus began attacks on north Indians; if that doesn’t work, he will try and target other ethnic groups.

The English media may not have noticed it, but resentment against ‘bhaiyyas’ has been growing among Marathi-speakers for some time. The reasons are not far to seek: Uttar Bharatiyas are among the most visible new migrants into Mumbai (and other centres) in the last two decades or so and come into contact with Mumbaikars in several ways on a daily basis — as security guards, auto-drivers, cabbies and vegetable vendors. Large swathes of the northern suburbs are full of lower-middle class north Indians. Thackeray says they are taking away local jobs, but it is doubtful that young Maharashtrians want to take to those professions.

Maharashtrians, mainly but not only upper caste ones have been fretting about loss of identity and culture. Youngsters want to migrate and those who stay back do not want to identify with the language. Like other youngsters, they want to learn English and join the wider world.

Thackeray moved swiftly to cash in on this resentment. He launched an anti-Uttar Bharatiya tirade and his followers began by beating up taxi drivers. The younger Thackeray remembered well the lessons learnt on his uncle’s knee; Bal Thackeray had launched the Shiv Sena with an anti-south Indian tirade, chiefly because they were becoming successful in the restaurant trade.

Having tasted initial success, Raj Thackeray has played different variations on the same theme, all the while making sure that he talks about the Marathi manoos. His intention is clear — come to me, he is telling disaffected Maharashtrians, the Shiv Sena isn’t the power it used to be and won’t look after your interests. With each round of anti-Uttar Bharatiya violence, Raj Thackeray must feel emboldened because the state government is shown up as powerless in containing him. But this will get him only short-term gains. In time, it will become obvious that beating up poor Uttar Bharatiyas does not impress Maharashtrians much — they may be prejudiced, but they are getting fed up of the regular violence. Young Maharashtrians are joining the white collar service sector and are not necessarily enamoured of the same things that attracted a previous generation.

It is likely that a frustrated Raj Thackeray will then increase the pitch in his bid to find other things to gain attention. Remember, the Shiv Sena too moved from attacking south Indians to Gujaratis to eventually Muslims till they found a workable electoral formula; the MNS may follow the same trajectory, each time using violence as the preferred weapon.

But, the latest high-pitched agitation in Mumbai and the television coverage notwithstanding, there is little doubt that he still hasn’t won his spurs. There was fear, but Mumbaikars have realised that he does not have the clout of his uncle. The Shiv Sena cadre has not shifted to him in large numbers; there was no network of shakas to bring Mumbai to a complete halt. This provides the government a good opportunity to nip the Raj Thackeray phenomenon in the bud and call his bluff. But does Vilasrao have it in him to do it?
Email: sidharth01@dnaindia.net