The Economist
India
Don't mention the massacre
Dec 6th 2007 | AHMEDABAD
From The Economist print edition
But it still colours Narendra Modi's campaign for re-election in Gujarat
AFP
AS A cheerleader for the emerging India, a giant democracy with—at last—an economy to match, Narendra Modi is a disgrace. His six-year leadership of Gujarat, a booming western state, is widely cited as a paragon of economic management. But double-digit growth is not all that Mr Modi—who is seeking re-election in a poll due to begin on December 11th—is alleged to have orchestrated.
There is also the small matter of 2,000 murdered Muslims, victims of a 2002 pogrom carried out by his Hindu-nationalist followers with the collusion of Gujarat's bureaucracy and police. This week the widow of a Muslim politician called Ahsan Jafri, whose limbs and genitals were hacked off and the rest of him burned alive, was due to file a petition in the Supreme Court, accusing Mr Modi of mass murder. There is little justice for Muslims in Gujarat. Only eight people have been convicted over the pogrom, mostly in neighbouring states. In Gujarat, some 2,000 cases remain pending.
A small matter, however, is just how the pogrom is viewed in Gujarat, the birth-place of Mahatma Gandhi, and a bastion of prohibition, vegetarianism and gnat-respecting Jains. Its last election, later in 2002, gave Mr Modi a thumping majority, biggest in those districts where the bloodshed was worst. Mr Modi's campaign that year exploited anti-Muslim sentiment. He foamed and raved against Pakistan's leader, Pervez Musharraf—meaning, his audiences knew, scheming Muslims in their midst. Many considered—and consider—the pogrom to be a legitimate act of revenge against a poor minority making up 9% of Gujarat's population. It was organised by supporters of Mr Modi's Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) after 58 Hindu activists were killed in a fire on a train for which, on scant evidence, Muslims were blamed.
This time Mr Modi's campaign has been more sober. He has unleashed the odd rant against “terrorists”, and a few barbs at Mr Musharraf. But the BJP'S leader has been much keener to trumpet Gujarat's recent economic performance—including growth of 11.5% last year. The change of tack may be because he is chary of the contempt the outside world holds for him. In 2005 America revoked his visa. EU countries have also denied him diplomatic status. This has been damaging to his ambitions to lead the BJP, and India. Mr Modi is already its most globe-trotting state boss. This year he has visited China, South Korea, Japan and Switzerland.
But elections in India are not won by leading trade delegations—even in Gujarat, which has 24% of India's coastline and a proud commercial tradition. Moreover the slogan Mr Modi is most associated with, “Vibrant Gujarat”—the name of a biennial trade fair he has staged—recalls the ill-fated “India Shining” campaign run by India's last BJP-led government for the general election in 2004. It was turfed out by the masses for whom India did not shine. Many in the Congress party, which leads the coalition that won that election, predict that Mr Modi will suffer the same fate.
His camp is certainly unhappy. Leaders of two powerful castes, the Patels and Kolis, which usually vote BJP, have rebelled against Mr Modi. They dislike his autocratic ways—and, perhaps, his intolerance of corruption. A total of 50 former BJP members of the outgoing assembly have refused or been denied the party's ticket. Eight are instead standing for Congress. The Vishwa Hindu Parishad, a Hindu group heavily implicated in the 2002 slaughter, is also upset with Mr Modi. Indeed, there are many in the BJP who would like to see him fall. With a general election due by May 2009, India's main opposition party is suffering a crisis of ideology and leadership. Another thumping win for the divisive Mr Modi would strengthen his claim to supply both.
These divisions have given Congress hope. Its supporters also point out that Congress did better in Gujarat in the 2004 general election than in 2002. Its leader, Sonia Gandhi, has campaigned hard in Gujarat. A strong showing by Congress would be a bitter blow to the BJP. It might even embolden Mrs Gandhi to call a general election early next year, or at least to push through a controversial nuclear co-operation deal with America over the objections of the government's Communist allies. As the Communists have said they will forsake the government if the deal survives, this might come to the same thing.
The BJP, however, remains the favourite. In 2002 it won 126 out of 182 seats. Gujarat's illegal bookmakers, famed for their prescience, expect it to win again, with a smaller majority. Betting has been heavy. Meanwhile, few commentators have dwelt on the poll's most depressing aspect: Congress's own careful reluctance to mention the 2002 massacre—let alone Mr Modi's alleged part in it. This makes electoral sense. Attacking Mr Modi for failing to protect Muslims might remind Gujaratis why they used to like him so much.
After all, last month, in a brave investigation into the pogrom, an Indian magazine, Tehelka, published transcripts of Gujarati Hindu-nationalists confessing to hideous murders and rapes. One alleged that Mr Modi had granted them three days to do this work unimpeded by the police—which is in fact what happened. No action has been taken against them. Instead, senior Congress figures have accused Tehelka of being in cahoots with the BJP. Gujarati bookies responded to its report by shortening the odds on Mr Modi.
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