Dawn, July 05, 2008
BJP optimistic about poll victory
by Asghar Ali Engineer
THE BJP is making hectic preparations to recapture power at the Centre. Its leadership assumes it will soon be back in government and that Mr L.K. Advani will be the new prime minister. Its success in the southern state of Karnataka has tremendously boosted its morale. Though the BJP knows it cannot come to power on its own, it is working hard on possible alliances both in the north ad the south.
In the south it may try to woo the TDP again, although the latter lost last election in Andhra Pradesh because of its alliance with the BJP at the Centre. It had severed its relations with the BJP after its defeat. In Tamil Nadu, AIDMK might support the BJP as Jayalalitha is herself pre-disposed towards Hindutva ideology for being a Brahmin. In the north, UP and Bihar are large states which send more than 125 MPs to parliament. In UP, Mayawati seems to be going strong and she is striving her best to keep her alliance with the upper caste Hindus intact. But Hindutva issues have now lost their appeal. To raise them again is like whipping the dead horse. And Brahmins are also disillusioned with the BJP anyway. The position of the Congress is no better in UP either, though it is trying to woo dalits through Rahul Gandhi. It may pay some dividends in Amethi constituency. In Bihar things are quite different again. The BJP may win some seats from Bihar in general elections. Muslims there are likely to switch over to Laloo Prasad once again. The BJP thus may not improve much over its last elections tally. In Rajasthan, the situation is not so certain. There certainly will be anti-incumbency factor because of the BJP's failure on many fronts.
In Madhya Pradesh, BJP's image has been considerably tarnished on account of several corruption scandals involving ministers and the chief minister himself.
Unlike Gujarat which is the citadel of Hindutva and where polarisation between Hindus and Muslims is very sharp, MP and Rajasthan, though ruled by the BJP are not citadel of Hindutva and anti-incumbency factor can make a lot of difference. In Karnataka it is likely to improve its tally in parliament over last elections. Unlike the Congress, the BJP is ever alert and has already begun feverish preparation for the forthcoming Parliamentary elections.
One more advantage it has is that it is a cadre-based party and apparently has a cause in the name of Hindutva to inspire its cadres. The Congress, on the other hand, lacks such cadres and a cause to inspire people. Only those who love power are attracted to it. In states like Gujarat its members are so much in awe of Hindutva that they have lost even lust for power and are not prepared to fight Hindutva ideology. They have just surrendered.
The BJP is aware of the fact that all Hindus are not behind it and Indian diversity is a stumbling block for it. It is, therefore, not willing to forgo Muslim votes altogether. It wants to play both cards of Hindutva and minorities in subtle manner. In his opening address in its executive meeting in Delhi in early June its president Rajnathsingh mentioned Hindutva agenda and said that BJP will demand uniform civil code and deletion of Article 370 from the Constitution. However, Mr. L.K.Advani, being aware of the fact that Hindutva agenda will put off potential allies like TDP, omitted any reference to it in his speech. He talked mainly of rising prices and increase in oil prices which has adversely affected people. He also referred to terrorism which he alleged is increasing during UPA rule and internal security is quite fragile.
BJP on the whole would like to project a moderate image of itself to win over those Hindus who dislike its Hindutva agenda but also to try and win a small percentage of floating Muslim votes. BJP has set up its own minority front mainly to attract Muslims. But no one should have illusion about its Hindutva agenda which it can never abandon for having strong ideological links with the RSS which is determined to establish Hindu Raj in India and is silently and steadily working in that direction.
One may recall that the then Jan Sangh did not severe its relations with the RSS even when it took pledge to accept secularism and merged itself with Janata Party formed by Jai Prakash Narain to defeat Congress in post-emergency period in 1977. The dual member controversy brought down Janata Party government but the Jan Sangh refused to break relations with the RSS.
It would thus be naive to expect the BJP to become moderate and pursue secular agenda. Of course, it would, for tactical reasons, put at back burner its Hindutva agenda to win elections. Once it manages to win elections it would let Sangh Parivar members to pursue Hindutva agenda openly.
Since its birth in early fifties Jan Sangh has never given up its ideological agenda and there is no reason to expect any change in 2009. Whenever it comes to power it would do everything possible to achieve its ideological goal and go all out to help financially and otherwise Sangh Parivar and its various organisations like RSS, Vishwa Hindu Parishad and Bajrang Dal. It may not be able to build Ram temple in Ayodhya (which is hardly its goal) but it would work consistently for establishing Hindu rule in India. One need not have any reservation about it.
It is time for the Congress to understand this and revive its secular ideology in a more determined manner and to inspire common people to build a secular India. It is in its own interest also, besides that of India.
The writer is an Indian social scientist and chairman of Centre for Study of Society and Secularism, Mumbai.